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Prediction for CME (2026-07-27T07:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-27T07:09Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47806/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the NE in STEREO A COR2 and faintly in GOES CCOR-1, not in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 due to a real-time downlink gap. The source is a heavily deflected filament eruption observed well in GOES SUVI 304, from a small filament spanning approx. N16E12 to N25W00 (centered N25E05) at 2026-07-27T03:13Z when it began to slowly lift off, more fully lifting off past 2026-07-27T05:00Z, clearly deflecting sharply NE in the field-of-view. Field line movement and brightening in GOES SUVI 171 and dimming in GOES SUVI 195 was also observed.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-30T11:44Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 27.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2026 Jul 28 1231 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60728
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Jul 2026, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 144 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 013 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 142 / AP: 010

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 886 (NOAA Active Region 4494) and SIDC Sunspot Group 923 (NOAA Active Region 4496) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk (both Beta). SIDC Sunspot Group 886 produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 927 (NOAA Active Region 4498) has rotated on the visible disk. The largest flare was a C5.1 flare (SIDC Flare
8288) peaking on July 28 at 03:19 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 886. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24 hours. Further analysis of the CME observed in
LASCO-C2 data at 20:00 UTC on July 26 shows that the CME is not expected to impact the Earth. Further analysis of the CME observed in LASCO-C2 data at
11:00 UTC on July 27, which is associated with a filament eruption that was observed in SDO/AIA 304 at 04:32 UTC on July 27, shows a possible glancing blow arrival at Earth on July 30.

Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 159 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity), which first reached the central meridian on July 27 is continuing to cross the central meridian.

Solar wind: In the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters came under the influence of an ICME associated with a CME that left the sun on July 24. A shock in the solar wind was observed at 15:30 UTC on July 27. The solar wind speed jumped from 360 to 410 km/s and the solar wind density jumped from 0.4 to 4.3 particles/cm3. The total interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 5 to 8 nT. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from
4 to 9 nT over the period, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -6 nT. The phi-angle was in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to return to slow solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled globally and locally quiet (Kp 1-3 K BEL 1-3) in the last 24 hours. Quiet to unsettleconditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain at background levels over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, were above the 1000 pfu threshold at the start of the period and dipped below the threshold around 00:00 UTC on July 28. The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to cross the threshold during the next 24 hour. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to return to normal levels over the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 105, BASED ON 19 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 27 Jul 2026
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 147
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 014
AK WINGST              : 008
ESTIMATED AP           : 007
ESTIMATED ISN          : 119, BASED ON 26 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END

BT

Lead Time: 48.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-28T11:36Z

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